AFL Betting Tips 2025: Round 10 Best Bets And Betting Trends

Loyal readers of our weekly AFL best bets blog would have maintained their profitability for 2025 (+9%) last week when GWS extended their winning streak at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong from four games to five.

We can only hope that Round 10 is as half as exciting as the previous one, which finished with the smallest average winning margin (10.33 points) of any round since the rebranding of the competition to the AFL in 1990. 

The best AFL betting sites are forecasting some similarly thrilling contests on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in particular and it is that block of matches that has caught our eye, where we have identified a couple of total points plays as well as a high value margin play at the MCG.

The beginning of the two-week Sir Doug Nicholls Round takes place this weekend and will see the teams don some stunning indigenous artwork on their guernseys once again, making for an always attractive annual spectacle.

AFL Round 10 Predictions:

• Swans Vs Blues Under 163.5 Points - 1.90 With PlayUp
• Magpies Vs Crows: Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 Points - 1.94 With Ladbrokes
• Geelong To Beat Yartapuulti By 1-39 Points - 2.30 With Picklebet

Sydney Swans Vs Carlton, Friday 7:40pm AEST

Two of the most difficult teams to get a grip on this year headline the Friday night program when the fifth-worst offence (Sydney, 80.8 points per game) meet the league’s third-best defence (Carlton, 75.2 points conceded per game) at the SCG. 

Sydney won the clutch moments against GWS two weeks ago but squibbed their chances to complete 30+ point comebacks against both Essendon and Port Adelaide, ruing set shot inaccuracy in two games they were expected to win as favourites. 

Carlton have a 1-4 record as underdogs in 2025, but start this match with just a 4.5 point line after winning four of their last five matches, most of them against lower-ranked opponents alongside the Swans. They lost all four games at the SCG (against Swans or Eagles) this decade.

This game has been set the lowest points total mark of the round by best AFL betting apps, but it still sits well above the average points total for Carlton (158.0) and not far above Sydney’s (164.6), so punters should lean towards the Under.

Our expectation for a low points total naturally steers us away from goalscorer markets for our selected player prop, but if you’re of a different opinion and you’re keen to back Charlie Curnow to kick 3+ goals for a fifth time in nine games this year, with odds of 2.33 available. 

We instead believe there’s value to be had backing Swans midfielder Matt Roberts to rack up at least 25 touches for what would be the seventh time in 10 games this year, particularly when you can get 2.06 for something that has had a 67% strike rate in 2025. 

Best Bet: Under 163.5 Points - 1.90 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Matt Roberts 25+ Disposals - 2.06 With Unibet

Collingwood Vs Kuwarna, Saturday 1:20pm AEST

There’ll be a similarly thrilling battle at the MCG on Saturday afternoon between the competition’s second-highest scoring team (Adelaide, 102 points per game) and the least penetrable defence (Collingwood, 70.6 points conceded per game). 

This game could very well be won in the midfield, where the Magpies will need to control the ball and starve a star-studded Adelaide forward line of scoring opportunities, whilst being a bit more efficient themselves up forward than they have been in 2025. 

The Crows lost both games as outsiders (away to both Gold Coast and Fremantle) this year but have covered the line in two-thirds of their matches this season, pointing towards this being a great opportunity to cover the +15.5 spread if not cause an upset with their elite scoring unit.

If you believe this will be a close game you could do worse than to take the almost even money on Ladbrokes’ “1-24 Tri-Bet” market (found under the Winning Margin Markets tab), where you can back either side to win by under 24.5 points or for one of the teams to win by 25+. 

Brody Mihocek missed last week’s trip to Perth with a mild abdominal strain but is expected to be available even before facing a late fitness test. 

He’s always a popular pick with punters in goalscoring markets and, having kicked 2+ goals in five of seven starts this year, will again attract plenty of interest.

Bet365 was offering a market-best 1.60 at time of writing and you’ll get refunded if he doesn’t play, so there’s no harm in snapping that up early. 

Best Bet: Either Team To Win By Under 24.5 Points - 1.94 With Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Brody Mihocek 2+ goals - 1.60 @ Bet365

Yartapuulti Vs Geelong, Saturday 4:15pm AEST

Only one win separated Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) in 13th from Geelong in seventh at the start of the round after they both suffered narrow and hard-fought losses to top-eight clubs last weekend. 

It has so far been an underwhelming campaign from different clubs for both reasons but particularly for the Cats who have already lost three out of six games as favourites this year, making them an unreliable favourite going forward until they can establish some more positive consistency. 

Port covered the main line in each of their last four home games as an outsider and will have a couple of potential recall options such as Willie Rioli (back from suspension) and 36-year-old Travis Boak, who racked up 35 touches for the SANFL side last round.

Still, the Cats have a winning record (6-4) from their last ten away games against Port Adelaide, could add Tom Stewart to their defensive setup, and the memories of last year’s 84-point qualifying final demolition of Port at the Adelaide Oval will be fresh. They should be too good. 

Oliver Dempsey will be slotted into our same game multi for this match because we’ll be conservatively taking the short ‘anytime goalscorer’ odds of 1.46 rather than going for anything greater. 

On paper he appears an appealing prospect to back in the 2+ goal market given he kicked exactly two goals in seven of his nine games this year, but two has been his maximum all year, so we’d like to see a higher ceiling before being confident enough for anything greater.  

Best Bet: Geelong To Win By 1-39 Points - 2.30 With Picklebet

Player Prop: Oliver Dempsey 1+ Goals - 1.46 With Ladbrokes